Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf67c…fe81 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$21
politics 33% −$17
sports 10% −$3
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 132 +0.2% -9.3% 6% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)132 / 135
History coverage128d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $352 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $270 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $96 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $289 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $750 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $266 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $244 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $289 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $300 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $301 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $275 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $281 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $244 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $288 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $306 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 07 $236 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $289 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $563 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $475 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $216 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 03 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $271 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $317 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $314 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $255 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $225 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $287 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $278 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 24h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 24h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 33h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 33h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 4d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 13d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 13d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 16d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 17d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 21d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 21d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 21d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 22d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.81 · official $121.81 (match) · 417 history records