Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf67c…218a sports 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$207 (+12%) realized +$210 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%59W / 51L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$3
14 days+$103
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$166
other 26% −$57
crypto 16% +$144
politics 9% −$31
world 6% −$22
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.1% -21.3% 50% 39% -6.3%
≤30d 74 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 46% -6.8%
≤90d 86 -3.1% -12.4% 49% 44% -4.3%
all 110 -2.1% -11.4% 54% 44% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 44% +1.8%
10% -19.9% 38% -8.0%
15% -27.6% 34% -16.9%
20% -34.7% 25% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$210
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses59 / 51
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions15
Markets (closed)110 / 125
History coverage595d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $8 $6 −$2 (-19%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Detiuc/Khromacheva vs Kichenok/Krawczyk Kichenok/Krawczyk 62¢ 60¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Yulia Starodubtseva 35¢ 34¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian Fangran Tian 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Over 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $14 +$6 +46%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $6 +$4 +60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +114%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +57%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $7 +$13 +206%
Ilkley (Doubles): Christie/Silva vs Brooks/Rajecki Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $3 +$7 +191%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $4 +$6 +140%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $26 −$26 -98%
Chwalinska vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $6 +$3 +43%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $27 −$27 -99%
Shnaider vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $49 +$81 +164%
Shnaider vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $84 −$83 -99%
Diana Shnaider vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $6 +$14 +216%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $7 −$2 -26%
Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $4 +$1 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnald Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $4 +$1 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $10 +$10 +101%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $8 +$2 +24%
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $13 +$28 +222%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $36 +$94 +262%
Marta Kostyuk vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Svitolina vs. Kostyuk: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 02 $2 +$3 +109%
Svitolina vs. Kostyuk: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 02 $2 +$3 +129%
Svitolina vs. Kostyuk: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $3 +$2 +79%
Elina Svitolina vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $2 +$3 +134%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $29 −$29 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $8 +$2 +31%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $9 −$5 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $15 −$14 -99%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Detiuc/Khromacheva vs Kichenok/Kr BUY Kichenok/Krawczyk 62¢ $6 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 35¢ $4 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian BUY Fangran Tian 16¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 1h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $5 4h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 68¢ $14 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 25h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 24¢ $4 2d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 24¢ $0 2d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 25¢ $5 2d
Ilkley (Doubles): Christie/Silva vs Brooks/Rajecki SELL Brooks/Rajecki 66¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Emma Raducanu 32¢ $7 2d
Ilkley (Doubles): Christie/Silva vs Brooks/Rajecki BUY Brooks/Rajecki 62¢ $3 3d
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Mary Stoiana $0 3d
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Mary Stoiana 44¢ $4 3d
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $8 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 62¢ $6 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.92 · official $88.92 (match) · 359 history records