Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F6 0xf67f…3f61 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$118 (+4%) realized +$120 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%69W / 43L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$153
14 days+$182
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$153
sports 28% −$37
world 9% +$26
crypto 3% +$75
weather 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +7.8% -2.4% 66% 60% +8.1%
≤30d 83 -0.8% -10.2% 63% 57% -2.6%
≤90d 102 -7.9% -16.6% 59% 52% -2.7%
all 112 -4.3% -13.4% 62% 53% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 53% -2.4%
10% -21.7% 43% -11.7%
15% -29.2% 34% -20.2%
20% -36.2% 20% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$120
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses69 / 43
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)112 / 120
History coverage112d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
France to score first vs. Norway? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 25 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $5 +$9 +181%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 +$10 +17%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $206 +$21 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $41 +$91 +223%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$37 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$5 +45%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $181 −$24 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 59m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5h
France to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 5h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 35¢ $5 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 43¢ $5 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 5d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 23¢ $5 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.74 · official $77.74 (match) · 257 history records