Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf681…f265 crypto 377 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$243 (-2%) realized −$625 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%133W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$138
14 days−$138
30 days−$1,912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$90
politics 11% −$1,608
world 4% +$586
sports 4% +$612
other 1% −$111
finance 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -50.8% -55.4% 27% 27% -53.0%
≤30d 19 -58.4% -62.4% 21% 16% -85.5%
≤90d 74 -15.9% -23.9% 32% 28% -40.5%
all 377 -12.6% -20.9% 35% 29% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 29% -13.4%
10% -28.5% 24% -21.7%
15% -35.4% 19% -29.2%
20% -41.7% 15% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$26 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$625
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses133 / 244
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)377 / 377
History coverage126d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1,608 $0 −$1,608 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$21 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $131 −$16 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 20 $53 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 20 $79 −$36 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $1,649 −$1,608 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8PM ET May 13 $27 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 13 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 12 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 12 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 12 $52 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 12 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 12 $26 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 12 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 12 $9 +$20 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 12 $37 −$23 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 12 $53 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 12 $53 +$59 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 12 $79 +$329 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 12 $52 +$45 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 12 $10 +$23 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 11 $11 +$73 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 11 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 11 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 11 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 11 $53 −$14 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $24 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1584 history records