Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf682…15f0 tech 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate88%30W / 4L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$1
other 32% +$1
tech 28% +$1
crypto 5% +$1
world 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 34 +2.3% -7.4% 88% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 3% -9.0%
10% -16.3% 3% -17.7%
15% -24.4% 3% -25.7%
20% -31.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×9.81 per $1 lost it wins $9.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses30 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage592d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will BNB reach $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of February 202 Jun 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Feb 20 $20 $0 +0%
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Feb 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025 Feb 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Feb 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of December 202 Feb 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025 Feb 20 $20 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 20 $40 $0 +1%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Dec 06 $19 $0 +1%
Will Mistral AI have the best AI model on October 31? Dec 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31? Dec 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Dec 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Kraken IPO in 2024? Sep 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Sep 12 $5 $0 +2%
OpenSea blocks US users in 2024? Sep 12 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? Sep 12 $41 +$1 +2%
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025? Sep 12 $100 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Feb 05 $5 $0 +3%
Ethena crash in 2024? Feb 05 $5 $0 +3%
US government Bitcoin reserves in 2024? Feb 05 $5 $0 +4%
Joe Biden impeached before 2024 election? Feb 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Feb 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Circle IPO in 2024? Feb 05 $5 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Feb 05 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Nov 27 $114 $0 -0%
Will Biden resign before the election? Nov 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 04 $139 $0 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 04 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 04 $138 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will BNB reach $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of February 202 BUY No 99¢ $11 119d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 99¢ $20 119d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $20 119d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 100¢ $30 119d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY No 100¢ $30 119d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 BUY No 100¢ $50 119d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 195d
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of December 202 BUY No 100¢ $20 195d
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025 BUY No 100¢ $20 195d
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 195d
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025 BUY No 100¢ $20 195d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $40 195d
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? BUY No 100¢ $20 195d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 280d
Will Mistral AI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 99¢ $20 280d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 99¢ $19 280d
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY No 100¢ $100 280d
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? BUY No 98¢ $41 499d
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 499d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 569d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 95¢ $114 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 95¢ $114 569d
Will Kraken IPO in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $5 592d
Will Circle IPO in 2024? BUY No 96¢ $5 592d
OpenSea blocks US users in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $5 592d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.70 · official $159.70 (match) · 72 history records