Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf683…9b71 crypto 1134 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$584 (-8%) realized −$551 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%497W / 626L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$342
sports 38% −$260
other 13% −$114
world 7% −$9
finance 1% −$15
politics 1% −$16
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% −$3
culture 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +0.4% -9.2% 39% 35% -9.7%
≤30d 611 +4.2% -5.7% 47% 42% -18.7%
≤90d 829 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 39% -19.0%
all 1123 -1.9% -11.3% 44% 41% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 41% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 37% -26.4%
15% -27.5% 29% -33.5%
20% -34.6% 24% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$551
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses497 / 626
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1123 / 1134
History coverage116d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 56¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 4¢ $35 $10 −$25 (-71%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 37¢ 44¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 50¢ 22¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-55%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 58¢ 60¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 21¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+74%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 433 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $17 +$19 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $14 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$21 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -97%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $52 +$4 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$5 +228%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -25%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$2 -45%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$19 +68%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$22 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$33 +119%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $31 +$20 +66%
Set Handicap: Dart (-1.5) vs Boulter (+1.5) Jun 16 $9 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 15 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $35 −$14 -41%
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $31 −$2 -5%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 50¢ $4 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 58¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 50¢ $13 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $19 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $17 12h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $17 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $14 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $16 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $19 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $19 21h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $20 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $37 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 61¢ $5 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $4 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.12 · official $111.11 (match) · 3265 history records