Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F6 0xf686…8c0b sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$33 (+5%) realized +$37 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$176per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$596now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+17.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+29.9%	+17.5%	100%	100%	+19.3%
≤30d	2	+29.9%	+17.5%	100%	100%	+19.3%
≤90d	2	+29.9%	+17.5%	100%	100%	+19.3%
all	2	+29.9%	+17.5%	100%	100%	+19.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.5%	100%	+19.3%
10%	+6.2%	100%	+7.9%
15%	-4.0%	0%	-2.6%
20%	-13.4%	0%	-12.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$596

Realized+$37

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$176

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Germany	87¢	86¢	$500	$497	−$3 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	No	58¢	57¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Jun 28	$91	+$29	+32%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	Jun 28	$10	+$3	+27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	87¢	$502	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY No	58¢	$101	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	78¢	$10	20h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY Canada	75¢	$91	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $596.26 · official $596.26 (match) · 6 history records