Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf68a…5b1b
sports · 186 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$106,685 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$101,255 · open −$5,130
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$451,477
Realized−$101,255
Unrealized−$5,130
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses82 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$13,075
Open positions121
Markets (closed)168 / 186
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5,650
Trades / day674.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 121 History 168 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125,348
7 days−$101,255
14 days−$101,255
30 days−$101,255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $49,544 $49,032 −$512 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $44,483 $44,238 −$245 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $28,406 $28,583 +$178 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $26,313 $26,638 +$325 (+1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $23,600 $23,400 −$200 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $21,475 $21,415 −$60 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $19,687 $19,690 +$3 (+0%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 82¢ 66¢ $22,322 $18,163 −$4,159 (-19%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $18,375 $17,875 −$500 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 62¢ $15,821 $15,570 −$251 (-2%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $14,955 $14,932 −$22 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $14,850 $14,798 −$52 (-0%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 84¢ $12,109 $12,590 +$481 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $12,363 $12,381 +$19 (+0%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 78¢ $12,494 $12,113 −$381 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8,063 $8,027 −$36 (-0%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $8,322 $7,020 −$1,302 (-16%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $7,068 $7,018 −$49 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $6,700 $6,650 −$50 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $6,572 $6,555 −$17 (-0%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $5,501 $5,538 +$37 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $4,860 $4,877 +$17 (+0%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 59¢ 20¢ $14,109 $4,697 −$9,412 (-67%)
Will D.K. Metcalf be traded? No 63¢ 96¢ $2,695 $4,098 +$1,403 (+52%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 78¢ $3,848 $3,847 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $2,330 −$2,341 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $28,150 −$17,788 -63%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $11,850 +$3,150 +27%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $17,690 −$17,690 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6,320 −$6,320 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Liverpool Montevideo vs. Cerro Largo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $8,327 +$5,786 +70%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $190 +$63 +33%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 11 $815 +$129 +16%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1,762 +$1,127 +64%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $3,012 +$1,230 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2,426 −$2,426 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,761 −$2,544 -92%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $3,791 +$2,979 +79%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $12,894 −$12,894 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15,339 −$8,362 -54%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $18,371 −$1,180 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $345 −$345 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $317 +$922 +291%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $256 +$744 +291%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $371 −$371 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $5,628 +$6,038 +107%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $50 +$113 +227%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $450 −$450 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $739 −$739 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 208.5 Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 11 $228 −$228 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5 Jun 11 $146 −$146 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 11 $357 −$357 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $255 +$145 +57%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $26 +$63 +240%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $622 +$2,047 +329%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $121 +$259 +214%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $384 +$833 +217%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $2,262 −$2,262 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $656 +$615 +94%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $206 −$206 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $3,200 +$316 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 11 $1,429 −$1,429 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $1,861 +$2,961 +159%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $49,459 −$49,459 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $11,746 +$8,254 +70%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $11,723 −$11,532 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18,398 −$18,398 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9,793 −$9,793 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $21,872 +$9,414 +43%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
France vs. Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $95 −$95 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $349 −$349 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,572 −$1,572 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$82,255
other 30% −$21,809
politics 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30m
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $8 2h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $6 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $7 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $6 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $7 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $6 3h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -3.9% -13.0% 49% 46% -18.7%
≤30d 168 -3.9% -13.0% 49% 46% -18.7%
≤90d 168 -3.9% -13.0% 49% 46% -18.7%
all 168 -3.9% -13.0% 49% 46% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover674.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 46% -18.7%
10% -21.3% 42% -26.5%
15% ← realistic here -28.9% 37% -33.6%
20% -35.9% 29% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451,476.64 · official $451,320.48 (match) · 3500 history records