Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf68e…a093
weather · 582 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$200 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$284 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$113
Realized−$284
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses173 / 392
Open positions17
Markets (closed)565 / 582
History coverage45d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 17 History 565 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$139
14 days+$63
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+167%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Yes 21¢ 84¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+298%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $2 $9 +$6 (+284%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 63¢ 26¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 33¢ 18¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 71¢ 55¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Yes 69¢ 8¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 14? Yes 45¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 14? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 2? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 20? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$8 +328%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $2 +$7 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $101 +$24 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -39%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$17 +335%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$19 +185%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 +$8 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$287
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 16h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY Yes 45¢ $1 16h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 33¢ $5 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 14? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 46h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +12.7% +2.0% 41% 41% +3.8%
≤30d 431 +2.2% -7.6% 33% 32% -6.7%
≤90d 565 -2.0% -11.3% 31% 30% -14.3%
all 565 -2.0% -11.3% 31% 30% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 30% -14.3%
10% -19.8% 29% -22.5%
15% -27.5% 28% -30.0%
20% -34.6% 27% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.34 · official $114.22 (match) · 831 history records