Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf693…ec6d other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$34 (-14%) realized −$12 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$18
politics 42% −$4
world 8% −$19
sports 3% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -19.1% -26.8% 0% 0% -17.8%
≤30d 13 -19.1% -26.8% 0% 0% -17.8%
≤90d 13 -19.1% -26.8% 0% 0% -17.8%
all 13 -19.1% -26.8% 0% 0% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 0% -17.8%
10% -33.8% 0% -25.7%
15% -40.2% 0% -32.9%
20% -46.1% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Yes 40¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 19 $42 −$6 -14%
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-04 House seat? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -20%
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Jun 18 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e Jun 17 $24 $0 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-01 House seat? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-07 House seat? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -1%
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 Jun 16 $4 −$3 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 $0 -3%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group St Jun 16 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$4 -32%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 73¢ $36 1h
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-04 House seat? SELL No $2 24h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-04 House seat? BUY No $3 27h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 28h
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e SELL No 55¢ $24 44h
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY No 55¢ $24 44h
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-01 House seat? SELL No $2 2d
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will the Republican Party win the CA-07 House seat? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will the Republican Party win the CA-07 House seat? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-01 House seat? BUY No $3 2d
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 SELL Yes $1 2d
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 BUY Yes $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 69¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $4 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No $1 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 69¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group St SELL Yes 62¢ $31 2d
Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group St BUY Yes 64¢ $32 2d
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 2d
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat? SELL No $2 3d
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat? BUY No $3 3d
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL No 85¢ $7 3d
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY No 86¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.58 · official $8.58 (match) · 34 history records