Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf694…9d0c sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$158 (+39%) realized +$165 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$178
other 27% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +54.8% +40.1% 45% 45% +36.9%
≤30d 11 +54.8% +40.1% 45% 45% +36.9%
≤90d 11 +54.8% +40.1% 45% 45% +36.9%
all 11 +54.8% +40.1% 45% 45% +36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.1% 45% +36.9%
10% +26.7% 45% +23.8%
15% +14.4% 45% +11.8%
20% +3.2% 45% +0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$25 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$165
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 100¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+67%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 42¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 18¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $30 +$23 +76%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $41 +$44 +109%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $41 +$62 +152%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $19 +$42 +216%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$133 +650%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 9h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $30 9h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $31 9h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 23h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $41 23h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 34h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 34h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $41 34h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.57 · official $92.57 (match) · 19 history records