Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf695…2b27 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$130 (-17%) realized −$135 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%5W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$46
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$35
crypto 17% −$62
politics 4% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -78.5% -80.5% 20% 0% -70.8%
≤30d 5 -78.5% -80.5% 20% 0% -70.8%
≤90d 5 -78.5% -80.5% 20% 0% -70.8%
all 25 -12.1% -20.4% 20% 16% -68.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 16% -68.4%
10% -28.0% 12% -71.5%
15% -35.0% 8% -74.2%
20% -41.4% 8% -76.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$472
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses5 / 20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)25 / 33
History coverage220d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$20 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 21 $5 +$8 +160%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 17 $20 −$12 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 13? Nov 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 17 $1 +$21 +1415%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 13 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Nov 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $62 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $62 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $49 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $43 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $20 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 21¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 31h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 31h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY Yes 15¢ $3 211d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 42¢ $4 214d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 68¢ $5 215d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $472.14 · official $477.14 · 63 history records