Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf695…409f other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,831 (+21%) realized +$1,823 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$730per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$2,642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$631
7 days+$631
14 days+$631
30 days+$505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$1,683
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.7% -46.3% 20% 20% +6.7%
≤30d 7 -57.6% -61.7% 14% 14% +3.0%
≤90d 8 -42.2% -47.7% 25% 25% +18.4%
all 8 -42.2% -47.7% 25% 25% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.7% 25% +18.4%
10% -52.7% 25% +7.1%
15% -57.3% 25% -3.3%
20% -61.5% 25% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,355 vs −$173 · ×7.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$2,642
Realized+$1,823
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage50d
Avg bet$730
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $2,634 $2,642 +$8 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,106 −$40 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $651 −$639 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $138 −$134 -97%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $100 −$98 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,538 +$1,541 +100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1,784 +$1,170 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $884 15m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $718 20m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,066 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,066 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,106 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Wil BUY 24¢ $251 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $651 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $138 19h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $100 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,079 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,538 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06 BUY 4¢ $264 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 3¢ $132 2d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 3 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 3¢ $62 18d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 3¢ $67 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 35¢ $2,954 50d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,784 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,641.87 · official $2,641.87 (match) · 17 history records