Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf695…debf crypto 2141 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$340 (-9%) realized −$340 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%1070W / 772L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day40.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$223
14 days+$275
30 days+$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 885 +23.5% +11.7% 66% 66% +12.0%
≤30d 1095 +21.5% +9.9% 65% 65% +9.0%
≤90d 1842 +10.5% -0.1% 58% 58% -4.1%
all 1842 +10.5% -0.1% 58% 58% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 58% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 58% -13.3%
15% -18.3% 58% -21.7%
20% -26.4% 57% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$340
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses1070 / 772
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1842 / 2141
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day40.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1842 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records