Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf69a…350f other 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$47
sports 25% −$26
economics 7% −$9
politics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$5
crypto 5% +$2
world 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage136d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $730 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $178 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $441 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $931 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $220 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,126 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $773 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $190 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $287 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $198 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $311 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $270 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $400 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $130 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $133 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 5h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 7h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 8h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 10h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 11h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 13h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $55 14h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $55 16h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 18h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 19h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 20h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 21h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 23h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 25h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 27h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 29h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 30h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 32h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 42h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.74 · official $54.74 (match) · 1405 history records