Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf69a…8220 world 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%24W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$9
other 25% −$2
politics 18% +$1
sports 9% −$12
economics 3% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 62% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.7% 50% 5% -10.2%
≤90d 72 -2.0% -11.4% 32% 4% -9.8%
all 77 -6.6% -15.5% 31% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 4% -10.2%
10% -23.6% 1% -18.8%
15% -31.0% 1% -26.6%
20% -37.8% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses24 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage542d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $135 +$2 +2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $18 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $69 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $93 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $3 $0 +17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $43 −$13 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $48 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $46 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $46 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 18 $13 +$1 +9%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $116 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $98 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $3 $0 -4%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $94 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $102 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $6 +$1 +21%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $42 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $9 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $26 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $17 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $18 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $34 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $35 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $33 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $27 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $36 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $36 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 341 history records