Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:09:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F6 0xf69f…227e politics 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$171 (-0%) realized −$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%31W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,428per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$124
other 31% −$719
sports 14% +$655
culture 3% −$6
world 2% −$4
economics 2% −$2
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 +8.7% -1.7% 14% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 91 +4.1% -5.8% 10% 7% -9.8%
all 152 +7.6% -2.7% 20% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 14% -9.6%
10% -12.0% 14% -18.3%
15% -20.5% 12% -26.2%
20% -28.3% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,014) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$17 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses31 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,428
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $209 $209 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $2,850 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $2,185 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $955 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,051 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $305 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $703 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,114 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,514 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5,068 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,859 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,056 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,452 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $906 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $58 +$63 +109%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $2,493 −$4 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $49 +$63 +129%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $5,438 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $52 +$44 +86%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $289 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 02 $342 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,215 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,753 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,139 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,185 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $249 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $697 −$1 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $2,380 −$3 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $44 +$49 +109%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $810 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $52 +$51 +97%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $2,206 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $4,187 −$5 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $843 −$1 -0%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 20 $690 +$355 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $335 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $335 3h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $412 8h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $413 10h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $588 29h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $589 33h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $411 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $411 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $533 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $533 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $580 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $580 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $423 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $423 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $379 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $379 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $305 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $305 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $702 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $703 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $879 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $880 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $724 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $725 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $685 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $686 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $823 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $825 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $870 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $871 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.33 · official $209.33 (match) · 523 history records