Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6a3…9246 crypto 25 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,152 (-54%) realized −$3,152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,449
world 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -36.7% -42.8% 36% 32% -63.2%
≤30d 25 -36.7% -42.8% 36% 32% -63.2%
≤90d 25 -36.7% -42.8% 36% 32% -63.2%
all 25 -36.7% -42.8% 36% 32% -63.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.8% 32% -63.2%
10% ← realistic here -48.2% 28% -66.7%
15% -53.2% 24% -69.9%
20% -57.8% 24% -72.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$260 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $50 −$14 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $262 −$262 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $208 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$138 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $838 −$838 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $85 +$50 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $419 −$419 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $513 −$507 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$160 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $416 −$416 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$14 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $417 −$417 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $420 −$420 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $210 −$171 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $418 +$65 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $211 +$72 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $43 −$22 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$60 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $131 −$105 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $208 +$123 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 19¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $210 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $216 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $208 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $110 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $209 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $209 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $209 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $85 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $209 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $210 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $171 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $131 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $142 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $69 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $367 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $207 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $210 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $208 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $209 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $208 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $205 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records