Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6a3…df40 other 280 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%137W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$186
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$18
weather 4% −$13
crypto 2% −$67
politics 0% +$21
world 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -87.1% -88.3% 5% 5% -29.7%
≤30d 24 -71.3% -74.0% 12% 12% -24.3%
≤90d 73 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 29% -25.4%
all 296 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 36% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 36% -9.3%
10% -16.4% 30% -18.0%
15% -24.5% 26% -25.9%
20% -31.9% 25% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses137 / 159
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)296 / 280
History coverage154d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 42¢ 42¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 13? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 13? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $425 −$32 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $271 −$256 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $139 +$102 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$22 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $11 −$3 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $9 +$2 +17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $25 −$17 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $22 +$4 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 04 $12 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 04 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 04 $16 +$34 +214%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $31 −$17 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $54 +$11 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $169 −$125 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $34 +$33 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Mar 31 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $71 +$10 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $35 +$12 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $20 +$18 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $133 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $96 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $225 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $132 17h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $27 26h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $108 26h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $15 26h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $9 26h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $9 26h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $74 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $33 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $73 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $39 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $25 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $81 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $161 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $93 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $111 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $139 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $107 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.87 · official $227.87 (match) · 2157 history records