Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf6a4…f692 politics 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$21 · open −$79
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%57W / 53L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% +$400
economics 16% +$97
world 10% −$180
other 10% −$165
sports 3% −$385
crypto 1% −$94
tech 1% +$35
culture 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -37.9% -43.8% 43% 29% -5.3%
≤90d 25 -15.2% -23.3% 36% 32% -8.3%
all 110 -6.9% -15.7% 52% 35% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 35% -11.1%
10% -23.8% 22% -19.6%
15% -31.2% 13% -27.4%
20% -37.9% 11% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$40 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses57 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)110 / 114
History coverage266d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $103 $93 −$10 (-9%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 89¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+3%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 19¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1,093 +$160 +15%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $933 +$320 +34%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $322 −$50 -15%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 29 $513 +$5 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 28 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $82 +$86 +104%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 18 $257 −$52 -20%
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $20B at market close on IPO day May 12 $10 −$9 -88%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 04 $60 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 30 $101 −$7 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Apr 26 $199 −$138 -69%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $30 +$22 +72%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $110 −$7 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 15 $36 −$11 -30%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $25 +$6 +22%
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senat Apr 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb Apr 13 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 10 $100 −$10 -10%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $150 +$89 +59%
Sam Altman in jail by June 30? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -64%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro Mar 30 $544 −$13 -2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference? Mar 23 $32 +$8 +26%
Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events o Mar 23 $30 +$18 +62%
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Mar 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12? Mar 23 $31 +$58 +186%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 11 $32 +$2 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $227 −$121 -53%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Feb 25 $200 +$5 +3%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $269 +$31 +11%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $397 +$213 +54%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $306 +$177 +58%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 23 $95 +$15 +16%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $817 −$339 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11? Jan 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 07 $104 +$6 +5%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jan 06 $53 +$18 +35%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Dec 30 $20 −$6 -28%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Dec 27 $32 +$6 +19%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Dec 27 $571 −$7 -1%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $17 −$16 -92%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 19 $125 −$3 -2%
FIFA Intercontinental Cup: PSG vs. Flamengo - Winner Dec 17 $330 −$329 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 17 $238 −$6 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Dec 16 $30 +$2 +7%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 15 $44 +$14 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 13¢ $152 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 22¢ $31 18d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $30 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $124 18d
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $124 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $141 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 16¢ $141 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $33 21d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 22¢ $67 21d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 23¢ $24 22d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 27¢ $103 23d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $225 23d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 26¢ $15 23d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 57¢ $36 27d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 40¢ $37 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 58¢ $22 27d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $92 28d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 41¢ $112 28d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 30d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $15 31d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $45 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 34d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 34d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 35d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 45¢ $165 35d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $37 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.71 · official $255.72 (match) · 551 history records