Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6a4…f2f5 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized −$9 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate80%41W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$6
weather 30% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -11.2% -19.7% 80% 4% -9.9%
≤30d 51 -11.2% -19.7% 80% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 51 -11.2% -19.7% 80% 4% -9.9%
all 51 -11.2% -19.7% 80% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 4% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 2% -18.5%
15% -34.4% 2% -26.4%
20% -40.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses41 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage5d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+186%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? Jun 29 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? Jun 29 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30? Jun 29 $13 −$6 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 29 $89 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $28 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 29? Jun 29 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 29? Jun 29 $2 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $9 −$4 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 $0 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $199 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.99 · official $19.99 (match) · 136 history records