Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6a5…c1c6 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 390d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1
other 35% $0
politics 6% $0
tech 6% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 45 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

390d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage390d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $58 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $28 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 01 $28 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $28 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95-0.99ºC in June 2025? Jul 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 01 $23 $0 -1%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between Jun 03 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Israel military action against Iran before June? Jun 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Federico Dimarco be named the Champions League Final man of the m Jun 01 $2 $0 -17%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $21 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $29 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $18 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $12 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $26 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $3 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $29 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $28 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $28 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 20d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $28 21d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $28 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $30 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $30 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $28 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $22 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $6 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $23 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $5 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $28 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $28 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $3 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $22 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $3 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $11 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.05 · official $29.05 (match) · 118 history records