Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:30:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6a5…20cb other 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%20W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$37
sports 21% −$19
politics 9% −$5
economics 7% −$6
culture 5% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses20 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)253 / 253
History coverage137d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 253 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $441 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $654 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $593 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $284 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $184 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $71 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $985 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $171 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $603 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $831 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $190 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $317 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $75 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $595 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $409 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $401 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $421 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $510 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $403 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $171 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $258 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $371 −$2 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 28 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $969 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $69 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $70 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $70 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 6h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $70 7h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $70 8h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $16 15h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 16h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $70 17h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $70 20h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $70 22h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $70 22h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $70 23h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 29h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 30h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $70 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $70 33h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $70 35h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $71 36h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $71 38h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $71 40h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $71 41h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $71 43h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $71 44h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $71 45h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $71 47h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $71 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $71 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $71 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $71 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1425 history records