Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F6 0xf6a6…e1ec other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+4%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$39
crypto 12% −$11
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-49.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.8% -43.7% 20% 20% -36.7%
≤30d 7 -43.7% -49.1% 14% 14% -38.6%
≤90d 7 -43.7% -49.1% 14% 14% -38.6%
all 7 -43.7% -49.1% 14% 14% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.1% 14% -38.6%
10% -54.0% 14% -44.5%
15% -58.4% 14% -49.9%
20% -62.5% 0% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$12 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage18d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$56 -73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 31m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 38m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $2 15d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.87 · official $19.87 (match) · 17 history records