Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6a8…b5c6 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$1
world 37% +$1
politics 10% −$1
sports 8% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 10% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 10% 0% -9.5%
all 39 -4.8% -13.9% 46% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 3% -9.5%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage470d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $83 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $16 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 29 $1 $0 +3%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will X buy TikTok? May 19 $2 $0 +16%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 16 $1 −$1 -73%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $13 $0 -0%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 23 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 20 $13 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $31 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $1 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $30 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $20 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $15 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $34 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 16d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $29 16d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $29 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $34 18d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $34 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $15 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $13 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $34 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $34 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.78 · official $30.78 (match) · 114 history records