Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F6 0xf6af…c64a crypto 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$148 (-7%) realized −$149 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%89W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day74.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$114
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$35
crypto 41% −$132
sports 4% +$6
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -16.3% -24.2% 40% 34% -15.6%
≤30d 228 -19.3% -27.0% 39% 34% -17.6%
≤90d 228 -19.3% -27.0% 39% 34% -17.6%
all 228 -19.3% -27.0% 39% 34% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 34% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 28% -25.5%
15% -40.4% 21% -32.7%
20% -46.2% 14% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses89 / 139
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)228 / 232
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day74.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $180 $181 +$1 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $197 +$48 +24%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $57 +$14 +24%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 +$11 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $72 −$71 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $9 $0 -2%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $24 −$23 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 +$17 +102%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 −$7 -42%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $9 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $55 +$19 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 +$3 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$13 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $57 +$10 +18%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 $0 -6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $23 −$3 -12%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $12 −$4 -35%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $43 −$42 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $37 +$6 +17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 +$11 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $8 +$8 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $29 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -7%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $3 $0 -3%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $4 $0 -4%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$3 +37%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13 +$2 +15%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2 $0 -5%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 20m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 20m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 21m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $181 22m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 23m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $212 25m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 36¢ $18 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $145 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $143 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 57¢ $12 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $83 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $18 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $18 17h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $39 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $64 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 61¢ $9 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.59 · official $207.59 (match) · 671 history records