Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6b0…61d9 crypto 166 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$195 (+4%) realized +$148 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate88%145W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day169.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 35% -10.1%
≤30d 165 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 35% -10.1%
≤90d 165 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 35% -10.1%
all 165 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 35% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 35% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 13% -18.7%
15% -26.8% 6% -26.6%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$26 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses145 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day169.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 0¢ 90¢ $0 $47 +$47 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $89 −$87 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $37 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.14 · official $46.61 (match) · 314 history records