Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6b1…77c0 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$495 (-35%) realized −$469 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%5W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$307
sports 38% −$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -40.2% -45.9% 18% 18% -64.0%
≤30d 28 -40.2% -45.9% 18% 18% -64.0%
≤90d 28 -40.2% -45.9% 18% 18% -64.0%
all 28 -40.2% -45.9% 18% 18% -64.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.9% 18% -64.0%
10% -51.1% 18% -67.4%
15% -55.8% 14% -70.6%
20% -60.2% 11% -73.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$28 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$533
Realized−$469
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses5 / 23
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions16
Markets (closed)28 / 44
History coverage4d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $41 $39 −$3 (-7%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $146 −$124 -85%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$54 +261%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$61 +593%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $59 +$22 +37%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $46 +$14 +30%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 −$5 -52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $42 6h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 6h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $69 7h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $74 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $49 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $22 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $50 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $26 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 25h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 47h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $533.44 · official $532.99 (match) · 78 history records