Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F6 0xf6b2…8f39 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$366 (+19%) realized +$364 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$37
sports 48% +$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +31.2% +18.7% 43% 43% +3.6%
≤30d 49 +31.2% +18.7% 43% 43% +3.6%
≤90d 49 +31.2% +18.7% 43% 43% +3.6%
all 49 +31.2% +18.7% 43% 43% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.7% 43% +3.6%
10% +7.3% 43% -6.3%
15% -3.1% 41% -15.4%
20% -12.6% 37% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$22 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$364
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage6d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 55¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$8 -54%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -7%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 +$24 +157%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$55 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 +$135 +874%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $15 +$11 +69%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -13%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$15 -60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$33 +33%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 +$18 +69%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $67 −$65 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $61 +$36 +60%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 +$30 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $112 −$18 -16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $152 −$8 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 +$78 +383%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$40 +194%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $21 +$88 +426%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$19 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $13 +$79 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 +$7 +65%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 +$29 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $13 +$14 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $51 41m
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 42m
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 42m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 42m
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 43m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 43m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 49m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 12¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 27¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $25 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 12¢ $26 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.76 · official $181.29 (match) · 121 history records