Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F6 0xf6b5…1a84 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-5%) realized −$148 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -27.9% -34.8% 0% 0% -34.9%
≤30d 4 -27.9% -34.8% 0% 0% -34.9%
≤90d 4 -27.9% -34.8% 0% 0% -34.9%
all 4 -27.9% -34.8% 0% 0% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 0% -34.9%
10% -41.0% 0% -41.2%
15% -46.7% 0% -46.8%
20% -51.9% 0% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$47 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$704
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage24d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $290 $387 +$97 (+33%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $205 −$68 -33%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $257 −$65 -26%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $104 −$5 -5%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 −$50 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $127 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $137 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $191 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $92 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $99 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $53 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 23d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 23d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $257 23d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 23d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $703.58 · official $703.58 (match) · 39 history records