Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:39:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6b7…47e7 sports 73 markets active 5h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%31W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$68
14 days−$111
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$25
other 23% −$7
crypto 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 30% -17.1%
≤30d 70 -8.5% -17.2% 44% 36% -10.2%
≤90d 70 -8.5% -17.2% 44% 36% -10.2%
all 70 -8.5% -17.2% 44% 36% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 36% -10.2%
10% -25.1% 23% -18.8%
15% -32.4% 16% -26.6%
20% -39.0% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 39
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage25d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$16 -40%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$4 -18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$5 -45%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $48 −$7 -16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $89 −$32 -35%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $25 −$4 -17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $54 +$14 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -28%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 +$3 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $24 −$14 -59%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $83 +$18 +22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $96 −$28 -29%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $20 −$1 -4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $20 +$7 +36%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $20 −$1 -4%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $35 +$15 +42%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $64 +$17 +27%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $10 −$6 -58%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $20 −$2 -8%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $6 −$3 -44%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $25 −$3 -10%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $6 +$2 +34%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $7 −$5 -77%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $51 +$7 +14%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $50 +$10 +20%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $50 −$10 -20%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $20 +$8 +42%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $20 +$11 +54%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $75 +$16 +21%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $41 −$28 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $30 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 75¢ $16 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $15 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $12 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $41 41h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $40 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 2d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 76¢ $21 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $25 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $6 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $41 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $48 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 53¢ $58 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 61¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.72 · official $92.72 (match) · 234 history records