Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F6 0xf6b8…d54c sports 468 markets active 0h ago coverage 383d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$876 (-8%) realized −$875 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%138W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$46
14 days+$43
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$165
other 26% −$1,463
crypto 12% −$147
politics 4% +$722
economics 1% −$42
world 1% −$5
tech 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -7.2% -16.0% 43% 43% -5.4%
≤30d 40 -14.4% -22.6% 32% 32% -9.6%
≤90d 80 +2.0% -7.7% 38% 38% +2.2%
all 464 -14.9% -23.0% 30% 28% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 28% -15.3%
10% -30.4% 26% -23.4%
15% -37.1% 23% -30.8%
20% -43.3% 19% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$18 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$875
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses138 / 326
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)464 / 468
History coverage383d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$11 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$42 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $130 +$50 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$16 +31%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$44 +203%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $94 −$18 -19%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $92 +$22 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 +$30 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$14 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $33 −$33 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $98 +$192 +196%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $75 −$28 -37%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $79 −$77 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 $0 -8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $32 −$2 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -14%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2 $0 -16%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $34 −$33 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $22 +$19 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $20 +$31 +152%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $11 −$11 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 16 $7 +$4 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $4 +$3 +61%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $13 −$8 -66%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $8 $0 -6%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $81 +$178 +219%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 40m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $93 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $65 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 23¢ $19 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ $51 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 63¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.79 · official $24.79 (match) · 1001 history records