Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6ba…f120 crypto 41 markets active 6d ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$137 (-14%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate17%7W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$364
sports 24% +$42
crypto 16% −$44
other 11% −$56
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.0% -13.2% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 25% +3.2%
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 25% +3.2%
all 41 -56.5% -60.7% 17% 15% -53.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.7% 15% -53.6%
10% -64.4% 12% -58.0%
15% -67.9% 5% -62.1%
20% -71.0% 5% -65.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses7 / 34
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage134d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $31 −$2 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $130 +$142 +109%
Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 19 $5 −$1 -18%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $90 −$24 -27%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 10 $32 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 10 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 10 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 10 $11 +$4 +32%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 05 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 05 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 05 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 05 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 05 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 05 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 05 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 05 $4 $0 -11%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Feb 01 $15 −$13 -86%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $324 −$297 -92%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 01 $6 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $102 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $130 9d
Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more? BUY No 1¢ $2 118d
Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more? BUY No 0¢ $3 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes 1¢ $4 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 1¢ $4 122d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 122d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 9¢ $6 123d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 123d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 1¢ $1 124d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 10¢ $20 124d
Government shutdown on Saturday? SELL No 75¢ $345 124d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 4¢ $5 125d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 6¢ $8 125d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 12¢ $17 127d
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 127d
Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 127d
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 127d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 28¢ $38 127d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 28¢ $15 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $6 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $6 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $20 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $28 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records