Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:43:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F6 0xf6bb…f9bf other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,096 (+65%) realized +$1,184 · open −$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$528
14 days+$528
30 days+$498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$1,018
crypto 5% −$10
sports 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +93.0% +74.7% 100% 100% +74.7%
≤30d 2 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 50% +65.9%
≤90d 34 -14.5% -22.7% 35% 35% +48.6%
all 35 -2.0% -11.3% 37% 37% +52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 37% +52.8%
10% -19.8% 37% +38.2%
15% -27.5% 37% +24.8%
20% -34.6% 37% +12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +69% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$15 · ×7.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.24 per $1 lost it wins $4.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$1,184
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage92d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $96 $8 −$88 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $567 +$528 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $18 −$18 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Apr 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $35 +$62 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 24 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 24 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$27 +275%
Sidemen Charity Match 2026: Winner Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $20 +$28 +138%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-04-18? Apr 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $33 +$27 +83%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $329 +$350 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 27 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $132 +$198 +150%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-03-21? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $5 +$16 +317%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $30 +$51 +170%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $20 +$85 +426%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $98 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,095 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $567 10d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 21d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 45d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 52d
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic BUY Ben Shelton 32¢ $20 57d
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $97 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 57d
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $10 59d
Sidemen Charity Match 2026: Winner BUY Sidemen FC 70¢ $20 63d
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 64d
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 64d
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 65d
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 1¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 67d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 67d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 67d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 69d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 76d
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 77d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 79d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $679 80d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 48¢ $329 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.46 · official $8.46 (match) · 56 history records