Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf6bc…42c1 sports 543 markets active 12h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$231 (+1%) realized +$226 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%238W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$234est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$424
7 days+$520
14 days+$400
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$133
world 11% +$150
other 9% −$38
politics 4% −$70
finance 1% +$44
culture 1% +$14
tech 0% +$94
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +22.5% +10.8% 64% 60% +3.2%
≤30d 467 -1.9% -11.3% 51% 49% -9.3%
≤90d 467 -1.9% -11.3% 51% 49% -9.3%
all 467 -1.9% -11.3% 51% 49% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 49% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 44% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 40% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 33% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$31 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$2,366
Realized+$226
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses238 / 229
Est. fees paid−$234
Open positions76
Markets (closed)467 / 543
History coverage27d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 68¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-4%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 75¢ 99¢ $71 $94 +$23 (+32%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 88¢ 100¢ $63 $72 +$8 (+13%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 93¢ $57 $60 +$4 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 40¢ 81¢ $28 $58 +$29 (+104%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 50¢ 85¢ $32 $55 +$23 (+70%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 87¢ $50 $51 +$2 (+4%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 61¢ 88¢ $35 $50 +$16 (+45%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 66¢ 90¢ $36 $48 +$13 (+36%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+9%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 82¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 94¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+55%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 96¢ $38 $47 +$9 (+24%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $44 $47 +$2 (+5%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 71¢ 78¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 78¢ $30 $43 +$12 (+41%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 70¢ $46 $41 −$6 (-12%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 86¢ 87¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 53¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+20%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 64¢ 96¢ $23 $34 +$11 (+50%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 68¢ $36 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$13 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 +$9 +73%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $173 +$77 +45%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $23 +$23 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$16 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 +$18 +48%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $32 +$13 +42%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $23 +$22 +93%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $56 +$8 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $48 −$5 -10%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $302 +$64 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $88 +$17 +19%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $18 +$26 +150%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $55 +$12 +21%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $48 +$17 +34%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $562 +$61 +11%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $12 +$35 +281%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 $0 -1%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $31 +$19 +60%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 +$12 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $43 +$14 +32%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 15 $27 −$8 -31%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $24 +$21 +86%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $26 +$15 +57%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $35 −$34 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $16 +$34 +216%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$9 +42%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$29 -78%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $36 +$26 +70%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $49 +$8 +17%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $30 +$32 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $29 +$33 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 +$7 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $36 +$26 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $24 −$24 -99%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $29 −$28 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $13 +$13 +101%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $37 +$25 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$28 -57%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $173 11h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 70¢ $32 17h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 51¢ $23 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 86¢ $39 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 86¢ $29 17h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $26 17h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 31¢ $12 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $22 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $23 17h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $20 17h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $32 17h
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 17h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 17h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $25 17h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $31 17h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $40 17h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $49 17h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $50 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $64 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $43 17h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 82¢ $302 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $36 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $39 33h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 95¢ $47 33h
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $27 33h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $31 41h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $48 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $55 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,366.16 · official $2,366.16 (match) · 860 history records