Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf6bc…c13a crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+65%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +26.9% +14.8% 71% 53% +50.2%
≤30d 17 +26.9% +14.8% 71% 53% +50.2%
≤90d 17 +26.9% +14.8% 71% 53% +50.2%
all 17 +26.9% +14.8% 71% 53% +50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.8% 53% +50.2%
10% ← realistic here +3.9% 35% +35.8%
15% -6.2% 29% +22.7%
20% -15.4% 12% +10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.46 per $1 lost it wins $4.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$28 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records