Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6bf…c624 crypto 282 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,970 (-8%) realized −$1,969 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%147W / 134L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,086
other 1% −$56
world 1% −$40
sports 0% −$77
economics 0% −$20
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 8 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 50% -6.7%
≤90d 233 -9.3% -17.9% 55% 42% -17.3%
all 281 -13.9% -22.1% 52% 41% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 41% -17.9%
10% -29.6% 26% -25.7%
15% -36.4% 19% -32.9%
20% -42.6% 13% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$40 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$1,969
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses147 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)281 / 282
History coverage95d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $96 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $62 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 03 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 03 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 03 $104 −$86 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 03 $82 +$44 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 02 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 02 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 02 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 01 $41 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 01 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 29 $77 −$55 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 26 $25 −$19 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 26 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 26 $90 −$76 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 25 $75 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 25 $56 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 25 $65 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 25 $53 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 25 $36 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 25 $62 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 25 $26 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 25 $152 −$134 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 25 $140 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 25 $126 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 25 $110 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 25 $82 +$29 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 25 $73 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 24 $123 −$51 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 24 $109 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 24 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 24 $168 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 24 $164 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 24 $151 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 24 $133 +$18 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 24 $129 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 24 $111 +$18 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 24 $106 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 23 $95 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 23 $76 +$21 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 23 $71 +$4 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $36 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $6 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $9 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $20 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $18 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $126 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $82 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $46 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $49 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.60 · official $95.60 (match) · 828 history records