trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 40 | -6.5% | -15.4% | 30% | 30% | -17.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.4% | 30% | -17.0% |
| 10% | -23.5% | 30% | -24.9% |
| 15% | -30.9% | 30% | -32.2% |
| 20% | -37.7% | 28% | -38.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $400 | $400 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $280 | $280 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $200 | $200 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 17 | $150 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 17 | $330 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 17 | $410 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 16 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 16 | $290 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 16 | $400 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 16 | $280 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 16 | $300 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 16 | $310 | $0 | -0% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Magic | Nov 10 | $42 | −$42 | -100% |
| Panthers vs. Kings | Nov 07 | $22 | +$22 | +100% |
| Avalanche vs. Golden Knights | Nov 03 | $12 | +$11 | +92% |
| Kraken vs. Flyers | Oct 20 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| Rangers vs. Maple Leafs | Oct 20 | $20 | +$14 | +72% |
| Capitals vs. Rangers | Oct 16 | $8 | +$8 | +96% |
| Dodgers vs. Mariners | Oct 09 | $16 | +$18 | +113% |
| Astros vs. Athletics | Sep 25 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Mets vs. Cubs | Sep 25 | $13 | +$14 | +108% |
| Yankees vs. Twins | Sep 23 | $2 | +$4 | +163% |
| North Carolina State vs. Wake Forest | Sep 11 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Rangers vs. Diamondbacks | Sep 11 | $3 | +$4 | +133% |
| Red Sox vs. Orioles | Aug 26 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Falcons vs. Cowboys | Aug 22 | $23 | −$23 | -100% |
| Pirates vs. Brewers | Aug 20 | $24 | +$12 | +49% |
| Twins vs. Yankees | Aug 11 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Twins vs. Tigers | Aug 11 | $5 | +$3 | +61% |
| Will Chino Rheem win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | Aug 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Tigers | Jul 30 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? | May 12 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 17 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 09 | $6 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Nicolae Ciucă win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Feb 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Raptors | Jan 22 | $121 | −$121 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Heat | Jan 21 | $104 | −$104 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20? | Jan 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Heat | Nov 27 | $128 | −$128 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Hawks | Nov 26 | $47 | +$67 | +144% |
| Hawks vs. Bulls | Nov 25 | $24 | +$28 | +117% |