Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6c0…1bb5 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$277 (-7%) realized −$277 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$880now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$6
other 21% −$3
sports 16% −$269
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -6.5% -15.4% 30% 30% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 30% -17.0%
10% -23.5% 30% -24.9%
15% -30.9% 30% -32.2%
20% -37.7% 28% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$880
Realized−$277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage572d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $400 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $280 $280 −$0 (-0%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $330 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $410 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $310 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Magic Nov 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Panthers vs. Kings Nov 07 $22 +$22 +100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Nov 03 $12 +$11 +92%
Kraken vs. Flyers Oct 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Oct 20 $20 +$14 +72%
Capitals vs. Rangers Oct 16 $8 +$8 +96%
Dodgers vs. Mariners Oct 09 $16 +$18 +113%
Astros vs. Athletics Sep 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Mets vs. Cubs Sep 25 $13 +$14 +108%
Yankees vs. Twins Sep 23 $2 +$4 +163%
North Carolina State vs. Wake Forest Sep 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Sep 11 $3 +$4 +133%
Red Sox vs. Orioles Aug 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Aug 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 20 $24 +$12 +49%
Twins vs. Yankees Aug 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Twins vs. Tigers Aug 11 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Chino Rheem win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Jul 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 07 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $6 $0 -3%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Raptors Jan 22 $121 −$121 -100%
Thunder vs. Heat Jan 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 13-20? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Heat Nov 27 $128 −$128 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Nov 26 $47 +$67 +144%
Hawks vs. Bulls Nov 25 $24 +$28 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $280 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $400 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $150 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $330 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $410 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $330 23h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $410 23h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $150 23h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $200 23h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $290 23h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $399 23h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $290 27h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $400 27h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $200 27h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $280 27h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $300 27h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $310 27h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $310 33h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $300 33h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $280 33h
Trail Blazers vs. Magic BUY Trail Blazers 47¢ $42 218d
Panthers vs. Kings BUY Panthers 50¢ $22 223d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 52¢ $12 229d
Kraken vs. Flyers BUY Kraken 46¢ $22 240d
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs BUY Maple Leafs 58¢ $20 244d
Capitals vs. Rangers BUY Capitals 51¢ $8 247d
Dodgers vs. Mariners BUY Dodgers 47¢ $16 264d
Astros vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 49¢ $9 265d
Mets vs. Cubs BUY Mets 48¢ $13 267d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $879.56 · official $879.56 (match) · 75 history records