Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6c3…0581 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$124 (-9%) realized −$126 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%36W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day66.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -26.3% -33.3% 42% 40% -24.7%
≤30d 86 -26.3% -33.3% 42% 40% -24.7%
≤90d 86 -26.3% -33.3% 42% 40% -24.7%
all 86 -26.3% -33.3% 42% 40% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.3% 40% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -39.7% 36% -31.9%
15% -45.5% 36% -38.5%
20% -50.8% 26% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses36 / 50
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day66.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 45¢ 50¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 53¢ 50¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $22 +$13 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$14 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$23 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$8 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$13 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$18 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$10 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.10 · official $66.10 (match) · 191 history records