Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:57:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6c3…e4ba weather 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate84%38W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$11
14 days−$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 38% -4.0%
≤30d 43 -4.4% -13.5% 84% 30% -10.5%
≤90d 45 -3.1% -12.4% 84% 31% -10.0%
all 45 -3.1% -12.4% 84% 31% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 31% -10.0%
10% -20.7% 9% -18.6%
15% -28.4% 7% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses38 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage31d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $36 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $33 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$6 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $30 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $21 33h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $20 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 72¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 92¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 87¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 87¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $35 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $33 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $11 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $21 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $18 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $14 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $14 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $25 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 1¢ $0 13d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $20 13d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records