Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:21:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf6c6…7d80
politics · 706 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$1,627 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,411 · open +$2,512
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51,485
Realized−$4,411
Unrealized+$2,512
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses473 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Open positions150
Markets (closed)556 / 706
History coverage709d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 150 History 556 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$85
14 days+$377
30 days+$876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $2,200 $2,227 +$27 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $2,025 $1,976 −$49 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,846 $1,876 +$30 (+2%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $1,467 $1,614 +$146 (+10%)
Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $1,490 $1,525 +$35 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,400 $1,446 +$46 (+3%)
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No 90¢ 88¢ $1,275 $1,252 −$23 (-2%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $1,230 $1,208 −$22 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 47¢ 90¢ $618 $1,182 +$564 (+91%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 70¢ 88¢ $930 $1,165 +$235 (+25%)
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Yes 69¢ 83¢ $875 $1,049 +$174 (+20%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $890 $1,018 +$128 (+14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 59¢ 99¢ $600 $1,015 +$415 (+69%)
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 100¢ $865 $1,010 +$145 (+17%)
Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $875 $982 +$107 (+12%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $937 $914 −$23 (-2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $796 $849 +$54 (+7%)
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $786 $780 −$6 (-1%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $848 $773 −$75 (-9%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $778 $743 −$35 (-4%)
Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $690 $732 +$42 (+6%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $700 $710 +$10 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 86¢ 99¢ $565 $648 +$83 (+15%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 80¢ 82¢ $625 $643 +$17 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $635 $637 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $75 −$19 -25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $300 −$21 -7%
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -8%
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Jun 14 $36 −$3 -8%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $95 +$5 +5%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $249 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 11 $250 +$39 +15%
Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? Jun 11 $318 +$24 +7%
Will James Clark be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? Jun 11 $372 +$28 +8%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $366 +$33 +9%
Services Down Parlay Jun 04 $50 +$2 +5%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $51 +$19 +38%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $40 +$3 +6%
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e Jun 03 $316 +$156 +49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $750 +$58 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 01 $60 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $120 +$5 +4%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $135 +$5 +3%
Will Comey smile in his mugshot? Jun 01 $175 +$4 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $175 +$8 +4%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $250 +$5 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $250 +$10 +4%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$5 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 30 $175 +$4 +2%
Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 28 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $826 +$3 +0%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $729 +$87 +12%
Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho? May 20 $650 +$35 +5%
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary elect May 20 $696 +$101 +14%
Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 20 $850 +$35 +4%
Will Austin Scott be the Republican nominee for GA-08? May 20 $450 +$45 +10%
Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary May 20 $587 +$71 +12%
Will Nikema Williams be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05? May 20 $600 +$96 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $700 +$18 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $250 +$2 +1%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 16 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? May 15 $44 −$10 -24%
Will Debra Salters win the Newark mayoral election? May 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 13 $75 +$9 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $145 +$8 +6%
Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West May 13 $500 +$41 +8%
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary elec May 13 $530 +$57 +11%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 10 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? May 10 $175 +$3 +2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele May 06 $666 +$39 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 54% −$7,887
world 21% +$4,012
other 19% +$749
economics 3% +$702
crypto 1% +$361
culture 1% +$101
tech 0% +$40
sports 0% +$30
finance 0% −$8
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $279 10m
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 91¢ $400 43m
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY No 93¢ $60 46m
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $60 52m
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 59¢ $127 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $40 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $56 59m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 90¢ $279 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $14 1h
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? SELL No 48¢ $33 1h
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 1h
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $36 1h
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $200 5h
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 33h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 84¢ $50 2d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 84¢ $81 2d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $30 2d
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $175 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 2d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $100 2d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $75 2d
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? BUY No 94¢ $100 2d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $22 3d
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 100¢ $249 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 97¢ $300 3d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 94¢ $175 3d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $45 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 9% -5.9%
≤30d 41 +5.9% -4.2% 90% 20% -2.6%
≤90d 149 -2.3% -11.6% 85% 17% -4.9%
all 556 +0.8% -8.8% 85% 21% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 21% -11.3%
10% -17.5% 8% -19.8%
15% -25.5% 5% -27.5%
20% -32.8% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51,484.63 · official $51,483.24 (match) · 2418 history records