Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6c7…8366 other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,193 (-36%) realized −$7,873 · open −$320
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$6,410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$7
30 days−$1,170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$2,738
other 28% −$2,827
politics 26% −$2,411
world 15% −$327
tech 2% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-63.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -5.0% -14.0% 55% 55% -34.0%
≤90d 58 -59.5% -63.4% 26% 22% -54.0%
all 58 -59.5% -63.4% 26% 22% -54.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.4% 22% -54.0%
10% -66.9% 21% -58.4%
15% -70.1% 16% -62.4%
20% -73.0% 14% -66.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -90% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$248 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$6,410
Realized−$7,873
Unrealized−$320
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions23
Markets (closed)58 / 81
History coverage51d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $600 $662 +$62 (+10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 88¢ 95¢ $500 $540 +$40 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $600 $495 −$105 (-18%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $500 $444 −$56 (-11%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $400 $439 +$39 (+10%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 71¢ 97¢ $300 $411 +$111 (+37%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $200 $392 +$192 (+96%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $300 $375 +$75 (+25%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $300 $288 −$12 (-4%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $200 $287 +$87 (+44%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $400 $280 −$120 (-30%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $300 $256 −$44 (-15%)
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? Yes 56¢ 36¢ $400 $252 −$148 (-37%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $300 $240 −$60 (-20%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $200 $218 +$18 (+9%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 77¢ 78¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $200 $172 −$28 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 79¢ 97¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 49¢ 14¢ $300 $89 −$211 (-70%)
Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-52%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $200 $1 −$199 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $202 +$107 +53%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $1,116 −$1,100 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$208 +104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $600 +$213 +36%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $304 −$300 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $400 +$287 +72%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $303 +$173 +57%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $710 −$700 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $203 +$252 +124%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $214 −$210 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $206 −$200 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $200 +$13 +6%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? May 14 $300 +$16 +5%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 12 $202 +$68 +34%
Alexandra Eala vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina May 10 $51 −$50 -97%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 09 $202 +$63 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $200 +$63 +32%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Xinyu Wang vs Alexandra Eala May 08 $814 +$723 +89%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 08 $618 −$600 -97%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 08 $407 −$400 -98%
Xinyu Wang vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 May 07 $203 +$205 +101%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandra Eala vs Magdalena Frech May 06 $319 +$296 +93%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 06 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 06 $51 −$50 -97%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? May 04 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? May 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV May 04 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 04 $400 −$400 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 04 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 03 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 02 $413 −$400 -97%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 02 $412 −$400 -97%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $1,215 −$1,200 -99%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $302 −$300 -99%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 01 $204 −$200 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 01 $1,004 +$117 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 1h
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? BUY Yes 56¢ $407 47h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 39¢ $102 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 11d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Alexandra Eala 65¢ $202 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 11d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 15d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $304 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 22d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $303 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 1¢ $10 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $200 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $200 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 45¢ $203 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $200 26d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $203 31d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 32d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 32d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 32d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 32d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 34d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 34d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 34d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 34d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,409.52 · official $6,409.42 (match) · 197 history records