Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F6 0xf6c9…a153 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$103 (-8%) realized −$128 · open +$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate38%3W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$85per market

Trades / day18.3pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$753now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-36.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-29.9%	-36.6%	38%	25%	-28.2%
≤30d	8	-29.9%	-36.6%	38%	25%	-28.2%
≤90d	8	-29.9%	-36.6%	38%	25%	-28.2%
all	8	-29.9%	-36.6%	38%	25%	-28.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.6%	25%	-28.2%
10%	-42.6%	25%	-35.1%
15%	-48.2%	25%	-41.4%
20%	-53.3%	12%	-47.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -30% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$50 vs −$56 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.55 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$753

Realized−$128

Unrealized+$25

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses3 / 5

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions8

Markets (closed)8 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$85

Trades / day18.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	24¢	26¢	$290	$309	+$18 (+6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	57¢	64¢	$98	$109	+$11 (+11%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Under	59¢	58¢	$98	$97	−$1 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$97	$91	−$5 (-6%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	28¢	$48	$51	+$3 (+6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$48	$49	+$1 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$29	$28	−$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$19	$19	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-96%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$100	+$112	+112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET	Jun 20	$102	+$3	+3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$100	−$74	-74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET	Jun 20	$4	−$1	-16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET	Jun 20	$102	+$37	+36%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$100	−$96	-96%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$100	−$97	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$100	1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	16¢	$20	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	57¢	$100	1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$50	1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	16¢	$20	6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$50	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	18¢	$26	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$100	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$2	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$2	29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$139	29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$2	29h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$100	30h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	24¢	$300	30h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	8¢	$100	30h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$100	30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$100	30h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$100	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$100	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$2	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $752.89 · official $753.12 (match) · 25 history records