Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:35:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf6ce…46cd world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+2%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% $0
other 14% +$34
crypto 13% −$10
sports 13% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +1.7% -8.0% 38% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 8 +1.7% -8.0% 38% 0% -7.9%
all 8 +1.7% -8.0% 38% 0% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 0% -7.9%
10% -16.8% 0% -16.7%
15% -24.8% 0% -24.7%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$10 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.39 per $1 lost it wins $7.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage20d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 29 $457 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 29 $456 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 15 $322 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jun 13 $321 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $466 +$34 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 10 $460 $0 +0%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $428 +$36 +8%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 09 $439 −$10 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $457 32m
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $457 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL No 95¢ $360 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL No 95¢ $96 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $456 4h
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $322 14d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $322 14d
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $321 16d
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $321 16d
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY No 93¢ $466 19d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $460 19d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $460 19d
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) BUY China PR 92¢ $428 20d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $429 20d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $439 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records