Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6cf…a305 crypto 52 markets active 3h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,766 (-34%) realized −$1,839 · open −$927
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 74% −$5,445
world 21% +$2,783
crypto 4% −$98
other 2% −$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 45 +6.8% -3.3% 29% 22% -37.7%
all 50 +3.0% -6.8% 26% 20% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 20% -38.4%
10% -15.7% 20% -44.3%
15% -23.9% 18% -49.7%
20% -31.3% 16% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$167 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized−$1,839
Unrealized−$927
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage454d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,238 $476 −$762 (-62%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $206 $41 −$166 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 28 $3,869 −$3,866 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,496 −$1,496 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 09 $339 −$339 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $199 +$4,279 +2148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 24 $14 +$15 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 24 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 24 $25 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29? Mar 24 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $4 $0 -4%
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $4 $0 +3%
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $10 −$1 -9%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Mar 18 $20 −$1 -4%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Mar 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $34 +$1 +2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Mar 18 $17 +$1 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $239 −$239 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 17 $48 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in priso Mar 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso Mar 17 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Mar 17 $15 −$1 -8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Jun 08 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $198 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $100 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $215 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $296 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $180 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $210 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $307 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $49 47d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $499 54d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $997 55d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 4¢ $627 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $2,492 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $700 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $339 66d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,478 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 4¢ $199 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.66 · official $516.66 (match) · 238 history records