Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6cf…aba6 crypto 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-30%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 33% -39.7%
≤30d 18 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 33% -39.7%
≤90d 18 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 33% -39.7%
all 18 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 33% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.3% 33% -39.7%
10% ← realistic here -48.7% 22% -45.4%
15% -53.7% 22% -50.7%
20% -58.2% 17% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records