Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
F6 0xf6cf…a967 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,485 (+54%) realized +$2,497 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$488now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$366
7 days+$637
14 days+$637
30 days+$2,325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +20.9% +9.4% 19% 19% +19.4%
≤30d 22 +23.8% +12.0% 23% 23% +43.1%
≤90d 22 +23.8% +12.0% 23% 23% +43.1%
all 22 +23.8% +12.0% 23% 23% +43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 23% +43.1%
10% +1.3% 23% +29.4%
15% -8.5% 23% +16.9%
20% -17.5% 23% +5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$781 vs −$93 · ×8.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$488
Realized+$2,497
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions5
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage24d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $104 +$666 +642%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$397 +384%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $104 +$896 +864%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $101 −$98 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 +$257 +249%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $97 −$94 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $47 −$45 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $96 −$93 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,005 +$1,689 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $103 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $103 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $104 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 16h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 16h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $104 16h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 16h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $52 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $104 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $104 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $103 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $103 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $56 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $360 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $46 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $52 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.73 · official $487.73 (match) · 37 history records