Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:52:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6d0…9391 other 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$61,913 (-14%) realized −$61,889 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate45%48W / 58L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,876per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Fees−$1,606est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$2,735now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$3,744
other 28% +$29,547
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -65.1% -68.4% 19% 11% -48.9%
≤30d 47 -59.8% -63.6% 26% 15% -34.5%
≤90d 106 -26.2% -33.2% 45% 24% -9.7%
all 106 -26.2% -33.2% 45% 24% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 24% -9.7%
10% -39.6% 20% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -45.4% 17% -26.2%
20% -50.8% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$5,071) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
31.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,432 vs −$1,198 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$2,735
Realized−$61,889
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses48 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$1,606
Open positions5
Markets (closed)106 / 94
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$4,876
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1,915 $1,890 −$25 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 38¢ $528 $521 −$7 (-1%)
New Zealand leading at halftime? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $168 $174 +$6 (+4%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 42¢ $148 $149 +$2 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grizzlies vs. Hawks Jun 21 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Jun 21 $1,338 −$1,338 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Hornets Jun 21 $123 −$124 -101%
Suns vs. Spurs Jun 21 $379 −$379 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 21 $1,401 −$1,401 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Jun 21 $196 −$196 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Jun 21 $1,034 −$1,034 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Knicks vs. Thunder Jun 21 $161 −$161 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of January? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Lakers vs. Magic Jun 21 $12,765 −$12,741 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Jun 21 $601 −$601 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Jun 21 $7,783 −$6,973 -90%
Wizards vs. Lakers Jun 21 $91 −$55 -60%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Jun 21 $481 −$481 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,091 −$1,091 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $832 −$832 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,886 +$3,253 +172%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $1,488 +$2,123 +143%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,309 +$1,476 +113%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1,618 −$1,618 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 18 $649 −$649 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $138 −$138 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $464 −$59 -13%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,225 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $17,982 +$18 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $216 −$216 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $518 +$135 +26%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $811 −$808 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3,525 +$962 +27%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $610 −$609 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $140 −$139 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,277 +$1,023 +45%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $8,605 +$1,691 +20%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,690 +$25 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $4,965 +$250 +5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $721 −$673 -93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $1,845 +$1,084 +59%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $300 −$261 -87%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $2,657 −$822 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $77 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $387 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $387 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $387 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $72 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $152 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $228 4h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 5h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 5h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 5h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 5h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 5h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 5h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $80 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $9 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $9 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $760 6h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $53 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $326 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $46 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,734.53 · official $2,734.49 (match) · 3500 history records