Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F6 0xf6d0…712d sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5,188 (+27%) realized +$5,188 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 31L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$312est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$377
7 days+$1,108
14 days+$2,917
30 days+$4,866
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$4,845
other 12% +$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +18.3% +7.1% 60% 60% +8.7%
≤30d 61 +9.8% -0.6% 51% 48% +15.7%
≤90d 65 +13.1% +2.3% 52% 49% +16.0%
all 65 +13.1% +2.3% 52% 49% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 49% +16.0%
10% -7.5% 46% +4.9%
15% -16.4% 46% -5.2%
20% -24.6% 45% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$307 vs −$174 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$312
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage34d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $104 −$102 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $292 +$308 +105%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $254 −$250 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $390 −$332 -85%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $321 +$508 +158%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $510 +$399 +78%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $724 −$714 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $158 −$154 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $304 +$296 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $282 +$172 +61%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,137 +$176 +16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $234 +$251 +107%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $254 +$238 +94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $357 +$513 +144%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $98 +$502 +510%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $288 −$283 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $274 +$255 +93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $275 +$198 +72%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $255 +$99 +39%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $318 +$321 +101%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $262 +$338 +129%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $292 −$128 -44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $307 +$508 +165%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $387 −$185 -48%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $508 −$502 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $87 −$84 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $253 −$248 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 31 $258 +$266 +103%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $564 +$724 +128%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $88 −$80 -91%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $275 −$192 -70%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $307 −$36 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $304 +$251 +82%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5 May 29 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 29 $196 −$196 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $256 −$256 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $311 −$311 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 29 $306 +$180 +59%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $269 +$251 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $1,563 +$1,488 +95%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $303 −$17 -6%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $101 −$41 -41%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $255 +$42 +16%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $244 +$2 +1%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor May 24 $199 −$174 -87%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $326 +$389 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $1,182 +$998 +84%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $330 −$145 -44%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $193 +$137 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 34¢ $104 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $292 15h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $254 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $58 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $33 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $358 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $829 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $909 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $724 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 50¢ $200 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $158 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $510 3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 38¢ $321 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $304 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 77¢ $74 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 77¢ $213 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 77¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 77¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 77¢ $136 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $282 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $1,313 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will BUY 13¢ $154 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will BUY 15¢ $51 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will BUY 15¢ $103 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $485 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $48 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $62 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $124 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 50¢ $51 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 51¢ $203 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records