Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf6d0…2df2 other 75 markets active 15h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%17W / 56L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
other 14% +$9
politics 14% −$9
sports 1% +$49
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.9% +7.6% 33% 17% -8.7%
≤30d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 18% 6% -10.4%
≤90d 56 +2.7% -7.1% 20% 14% -8.7%
all 73 +2.9% -6.9% 23% 14% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 14% -9.3%
10% -15.8% 14% -18.0%
15% -23.9% 12% -25.9%
20% -31.4% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage607d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $178 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $303 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $84 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $134 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $141 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $142 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $140 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $147 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $149 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $139 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $137 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $138 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$16 +165%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $7 +$5 +70%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 14h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 16h
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $60 3d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 5d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $5 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 11d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $16 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 18d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $20 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 20d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 21d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 21d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 23d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 24d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.15 · official $111.15 (match) · 309 history records